I love interesting ways of displaying complex data,
especially maps. With the US presidential election results in, lots of interesting maps have been created.
I think we're all pretty familiar with the classic Red vs. Blue map, with states that voted for Bush being colored red, and states that voted for Kerry being colored blue:
Here is another view, where one box represents one electoral vote (from the
New York Times):
The state-by-state view is a bit simplistic, of course. Here are the results by county (From
USA Today):
That's a lot of red, but this too should be weighted by population to get an accurate view, and there are a number of different ways people have done this. This is the
New York Times's method: circles that are proportional to a county's population.
This 3D view by
ESRI (the company that makes some of the election analysis tools used by the networks) is a bit clearer. A county's height is proportional to its population (via
The Big Picture)
But the most interesting view is from Michael Gastner, Cosma Shalizi, and Mark Newman at the University of Michigan, where they have used an algorithm to distort the shape of the county-by-county map to reflect population differences. Here is the fascinating result (via
Crooked Timber):
They also did it on the state-by-state results, which is a bit easier to get your head around:
There are those who say that this red and blue view is a little too black and white. A state/county where a given candidate got 50.000001% of the vote is colored the same as a state/county where the candidate got 90% of the vote.
Robert Vanderbei has put together a map based on this idea, and the result shows that there's not really a "Red America" and a "Blue America", but more of a "Purple America":
Gastner, Shalizi, Newman applied their algorithm to Vanderbei's map, and came up with this, my favorite map of the lot:
They also have their images in
wallpaper sizeThis is a bit anticlimactic after that one, but it's an interesting map with different data, showing how 18-29 year olds voted. It's based on exit poll data, so it is of course
skewed towards Kerry, but it's interesting nonetheless (via
The Big Picture):
33 Comments:
It's based on exit poll data, so it is of course skewed towards KerrySo I guess you subscribe to theory that the exit polls were skewed in favor of Kerry rather than the theory that there was voter fraud in favor of Bush. I suppose your view is more palatable, though there's evidence on both sides of that debate.
Posted by salas
at 11/09/2004 4:09 PM
This is a really cool post, Adam. Thanks.
Posted by MattP
at 11/09/2004 4:17 PM
MattP:
Thanks. I'm a sucker for cool pictures.
Salas:
I generally have trouble believing nefarious plots and conspiracy theories. It's just too easy for someone to screw up, or to accidentally let word slip. The other thing is that since I work with stats a lot in my job, particularly to try to predict behavior, I've become acutely aware of the shortcomings of stats. They can be really powerful, but they're imperfect by nature. Above all, I generally give people the benefit of the doubt, and assume that they're not up to no good unless proven otherwise, which is generally a good assumption.
That being said, I haven't seen the evidence of those who believe the exit polls over the published results, and it's not fair to come to a decision without hearing both sides. The burden of proof is very very high in my mind, but I can't be closed to it. Can you point me towards some of the evidence?
Posted by Adam Crouch
at 11/09/2004 4:33 PM
I hate to disappoint, but I don't think it's quite a conspiracy theory - I think it's more of a if everybody who thought they were allowed to vote, should have been allowed to vote, and came to the voting booths voted the way they intended to vote, with none of the digital mistakes that we've seen already in Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida, where thousands of 'extra' votes went to Bush or votes were lost by Kerry, Kerry would've won.
It's more of an analytical argument, looking at the digital mistakes, where X's appeared next to candidates other than the one the voters wanted, where some electronic ballots were pre-marked for Bush, etc.
It's an argument that requires one to look at the thousands of voters unfairly excised from the voter rolls in Florida and Ohio, and how in some counties in Florida there were more votes tallied than residents in the county.
Personally, I think the argument takes a lot more analysis than I am capable of giving. I just know the theory is out there and has been made by respectable people. It's definitely not as clean-cut, as "They stole the election!", as 2000. But in any case there are definite systemic election issues regarding voter registration and digital voting that we have to deal with in America.
Two places the argument is made properly:
1. Russia's Pravda: Did Bush steal the election?2. Worse Than 2000: Tuesday's Electoral Disaster
Posted by salas
at 11/10/2004 5:21 AM
Greg Palast, contributing editor to Harper's magazine, investigated the manipulation of the vote for BBC Television's Newsnight. He also claims that Kerry won the election, resting his argument on the spoilage of a hundred thousand votes in Ohio.
Again, it's just a theory, but the fact that we're throwing away about 3% of valid votes because of technical glitches is unconscionable.
Posted by salas
at 11/10/2004 9:32 AM
Check out this study from CalTech-MIT Voting Technology Project. They look at the evidence, and find no correlation between the percent of precints using electronic voting machines in a state, and Bush's gain over the exit polls in that state. I tried to include the chart in the comments here, but Blogger won't let me, so you'll have to click on the link.
Of course, that doesn't rule out the possibility that the electronic machines malfunctioned only in Ohio. The study does point out that electronic voting machines were only used in 15% of precincts in Ohio, however. This could still provide the margin of victory needed, but it takes a pretty reasonable leap of faith the believe exit polls over official results.
Regarding spoilage, my understanding is that this was due to the fact that 73% of precints in Ohio used punch cards, like were used in Florida in 2000. Punch card voting should definitely stop
By Adam Crouch
at 11/11/2004 2:22 PM
That article makes the case that you can't cry conspiracy solely on the basis of the exit polls. That's the trouble with the Diebold equipment - you can't go back and check, so you have to assume the results are correct when repeated tests have shown the equipment to be flawed.
I mentioned the documented problems of the Diebold equipment during this election in previous comments, including thousands of extra votes counted in some precincts and instances of ballots being pre-marked or marked incorrectly.
In San Francisco, where the machines were used for the March primary, the machines performed so poorly that several counties successfully sued Diebold for selling shoddy equipment and lying about their machines ability to record votes.
I think Professor David Dill of Stanford University, one of the foremost experts on electronic voting, said it best when he said "Any election conducted on these machines is questionable. You don't have any proof that the election results are sound. On the other hand, a challenging party doesn't have any proof that the election is unsound, because the evidence is not there either."
This election is done with, but for the next election we as citizens should demand that we use electronic voting machines that can pass independent performance and security tests.
By salas
at 11/12/2004 8:57 AM
This election is done with, but for the next election we as citizens should demand that we use electronic voting machines that can pass independent performance and security tests.I definitely agree with you on that. We shouldn't be in a situation where there are any concerns like this. How tough can it be to add a paper trail?
By Adam Crouch
at 11/12/2004 12:07 PM
Here's the large map of state vote by population which I made in photoshop using precise values of red and blue in photoshop, using the RGB color mode.
http://www.windweaver.com/politics/inthepurple.htm
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